You keep hearing Phoenix buyers finally have the upper hand. Then you tour a house in Gilbert and the listing agent acts like it’s 2021.
Both things can be true. “Buyer’s market” isn’t a mood or a headline. It’s a test with actual numbers behind it, and the Phoenix numbers moved in August. Not all the way, though.
Short answer: Not quite. Phoenix is balanced and leaning buyer. Homie’s September 2026 analysis of ARMLS data shows 4.28 months of supply in August, up from 3.77 in July, which moves Phoenix out of seller territory but short of the 6 months usually read as a buyer’s market. Prices are soft, not crashing.
What makes a housing market a buyer’s market?
A buyer’s market is one where listings pile up faster than buyers absorb them, so sellers compete for you. The usual yardstick is months of supply: how long it would take to sell every active listing at the current sales pace if nothing new came on the market.
The common rule of thumb: under about 4 months of supply leans toward sellers. Roughly 4 to 6 months is balanced. Over 6 months leans toward buyers. These are industry conventions, not law, and analysts draw the lines a little differently.
What is Phoenix’s months supply right now?
Phoenix had 4.28 months of supply in August 2026, according to Homie’s September 2026 analysis of ARMLS data, up from 3.77 in July. That one-month jump carried the metro across the 4-month line from seller-leaning into balanced.
The Phoenix REALTORS August 2026 Market Activity report puts it at 4.1 months, with 24,161 homes for sale.
| Measure (ARMLS) | July 2026 | August 2026 | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active listings | 23,745 | 23,406 | Slightly fewer homes for sale, so supply isn’t flooding |
| Under contract | 6,638 | 6,913 | Buyers are still signing deals |
| Months supply | 3.77 | 4.28 | Crossed from seller-leaning into balanced |
| Absorption rate | 26.52% | 23.37% | A smaller share of listings selling each month |
| Average / median DOM | 85 / 61 | 88 / 64 | Homes sitting about three days longer |
| Median sale price | $450,000 | $445,000 | Down $5,000 in a month, a nudge, not a slide |
Source: Homie’s September 2026 analysis of ARMLS August data.
What is absorption rate, and what does Phoenix’s say?
Absorption rate is the share of active listings that sell in a month, and in Phoenix it fell to 23.37% in August 2026 from 26.52% in July, per Homie’s analysis of ARMLS data. It’s the flip side of months supply: divide 1 by 23.37% and you get the 4.28 months above.
Translated, absorption above about 25% matches under 4 months of supply (seller-leaning), about 17% to 25% is balanced, and below roughly 17% is buyer territory. Phoenix sits in the middle band, near the top.
Are Phoenix home prices falling?
Sale prices are basically flat; asking prices are falling. Phoenix REALTORS reports an August 2026 median sale price of $455,000, up 0.4% year over year.
The Phoenix metro median list price was $475,000 in August 2026, down 4.8% from a year earlier, according to Realtor.com data on FRED. About 47% of listings in that series had a price cut.
Longer view: the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Phoenix index read 326.26 in June 2026, about 5% below its June 2022 peak of 343.55. A slow leak, not a crash.
Why are Phoenix pending sales down 35%?
Phoenix REALTORS counted 3,826 pending sales in August 2026, down 35.4% from a year earlier, and the report doesn’t say why. Other August measures are nowhere near that weak.
Closed sales fell just 6.8%, to 5,256. Homie’s ARMLS analysis shows homes under contract actually rose, to 6,913 from 6,638 in July. The gap between those two counts suggests they capture different stages of a deal. And the National Association of Realtors reported West region pending sales up 3.0% from July, though down 6.7% year over year.
Our take: demand is slower, not gone. Watch September closings before treating the 35% as a trend.
Does buyer leverage in Phoenix change by price range or home type?
Yes. Condos give buyers the most room. The Phoenix REALTORS August 2026 Housing Supply Overview shows townhouses and condos at 5.4 months of supply versus 4.0 for single-family homes.
By price, the top end is softest. Homes at $633,000 or more had 4.7 months of supply. The $375,000 to $474,999 band was tightest at 3.8 months, still seller-leaning. A $425,000 search and a $700,000 search are different markets.
Days on market vary city by city too; we ranked them in where Phoenix buyers have the most leverage.
How much below asking can you offer on a Phoenix home?
Less than the headlines suggest. Phoenix sellers received 98.0% of their most recent list price in August 2026, per Phoenix REALTORS. On a home listed at $460,000, that’s roughly $450,800, about $9,200 under.
The catch: that 98% is measured against the most recent list price, after any cuts. With nearly half of listings reduced, much of the discount happened before the offer. Stale homes have the most room, so check cumulative days on market (CDOM), which doesn’t reset when a seller relists.
What should you ask for in a Phoenix offer right now?
Price is only one lever. A seller who won’t budge $10,000 on price may cover closing costs or fix the roof. Here’s where we’d start:
- Seller concessions toward closing costs or a rate buydown. At 7.03% (Freddie Mac, September 24, 2026), money that lowers your rate may help your monthly payment more than the same dollars off the price. Loan programs cap seller contributions, so ask your loan officer first.
- Repairs through the BINSR. Arizona’s Buyer’s Inspection Notice and Seller’s Response is where you request fixes or credits after the inspection.
- Price, backed by data. Bring the home’s CDOM, its price history and recent comparable sales.
- Your closing timeline. A longer close to line up with a lease, or a quick one if the seller needs to move.
- Personal property. Washer, dryer, fridge, pool equipment.
A Homie agent can help you pick which to lead with. Start on the Homie buyer page.
Should you wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying in Phoenix?
Nobody can promise rates will drop, and waiting has a cost too. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.03% on September 24, 2026, per Freddie Mac, up from 6.30% a year earlier and the fifth straight weekly rise on FRED’s weekly series.
High rates are part of why Phoenix buyers have leverage now. If rates fall, more buyers come back and concessions get harder to win. Refinancing later isn’t certain and isn’t free. A loan officer can run your numbers both ways, and the Homie affordability calculator is a quick first look.
Is it a buyer’s market in Tucson too?
Tucson looks less buyer-friendly than Phoenix on listing data, though we can’t run the same months-supply test there. Realtor.com data on FRED shows the Tucson metro with 3,665 active listings in August 2026, down 0.6% from a year earlier, and 1,284 price cuts, about 35% of listings compared with about 47% in Phoenix.
Tucson’s median list price was $374,900, down 2.6% year over year, a smaller drop than Phoenix’s 4.8%. That’s asking-price data, not closed sales.
Quick answers
Is the Phoenix housing market crashing?
No. Phoenix’s median sale price was $455,000 in August 2026, up 0.4% from a year earlier, per Phoenix REALTORS. The Case-Shiller Phoenix index is about 5% below its June 2022 peak, a gradual four-year slide. Buyers have more room to negotiate, but that’s a cooling, balanced market.
Can I ask a Phoenix seller for concessions?
Yes. With Phoenix at 4.28 months of supply in August 2026 per Homie’s analysis of ARMLS data, many sellers will consider paying part of a buyer’s closing costs or a rate buydown. Every loan program caps how much a seller can contribute, so ask your loan officer for your limit before writing the offer.
Is new construction a better deal in Phoenix right now?
Sometimes. Builders often offer incentives like rate buydowns or closing-cost help instead of cutting base prices, and those offers change month to month by community. Compare the full cost, including lot premiums and upgrades, against resale homes nearby. Our new construction vs resale guide walks through the trade-offs.
How long do Phoenix homes sit on the market?
In August 2026, Phoenix homes had a median of 64 days on market and an average of 88, per Homie’s September 2026 analysis of ARMLS data, both up about three days from July. Phoenix REALTORS reports 81 days on market for all residential sales. Homie’s own Arizona listings are tracked by cumulative days on market, which doesn’t reset on relisting.
When would Phoenix become a true buyer’s market?
By the common rule of thumb, Phoenix would need about 6 months of supply, or an absorption rate below roughly 17%. It was at 4.28 months and 23.37% in August 2026, per Homie’s analysis of ARMLS data. Getting there would take several more months of slower sales or rising listings.
The bottom line
Phoenix passed the first test in August. It’s no longer a seller’s market, and buyers can ask for things they couldn’t two years ago. But 4.28 months isn’t 6, and 98% of list isn’t a fire sale. Our take: shop like it’s balanced, negotiate like it’s leaning your way, and don’t wait around for a crash the data doesn’t show.
Ready to see what that leverage looks like on real homes? Request a tour, check out Homie in Arizona, or start your search with a Homie buyer agent who knows the Valley. Whether you’re buying, selling, or doing both, Homie has your back.
— The Homie Team
*Examples are for illustrative purposes only. This article is general information, not legal, tax, lending or insurance advice.
*Market data from Homie’s September 2026 analysis of ARMLS data (August 2026); Phoenix REALTORS Market Activity and Housing Supply Overview (August 2026); Realtor.com via FRED (August 2026, asking prices); S&P Cotality Case-Shiller via FRED (June 2026); Freddie Mac PMMS (September 24, 2026); and National Association of Realtors (August 2026). All data obtained from sources deemed reliable but not verified. Information not guaranteed.