One headline says Phoenix prices are still rising. Another says sales just fell 40%. Your neighbor in Glendale cut her price twice. So which is it?
Both headlines can be true at once, because they measure different things. Here’s what each number says as of late October 2026, and what it means for your home.
Short answer: A little, and it depends on the yardstick. Case-Shiller had Phoenix up just 0.42% year over year in August 2026, but down 0.53% from July (before seasonal adjustment). Maricopa County’s September single-family median sale price fell 2.0% to $500,000, and asking prices are down about 5%. Soft and flat, not a crash.
Are Phoenix home prices going down right now?
Slightly, on most measures. Sale prices are flat to a few percent lower than a year ago, and asking prices have dropped more than sale prices have.
Put the main numbers side by side and the picture gets clearer:
| Measure (geography, month) | What it tracks | Latest | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Cotality Case-Shiller (Phoenix metro, August 2026) | Repeat sales of the same homes | Index 324.94 | +0.42% |
| Phoenix REALTORS, all homes (ARMLS area, September 2026) | Median sale price | $460,000 | -1.6% |
| Maricopa County single-family (September 2026) | Median sale price | $500,000 | -2.0% |
| Maricopa County townhouse/condo (September 2026) | Median sale price | $320,000 | -3.9% |
| City of Phoenix single-family (September 2026) | Median sale price | $485,000 | -3.5% |
| Realtor.com, Phoenix metro (September 2026) | Median asking (list) price | $475,000 | -4.8% (from $499,000) |
Sources: the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller August 2026 release, Phoenix REALTORS Monthly Indicators (current as of October 3), the Maricopa County Local Market Update, the City of Phoenix Local Market Update and Realtor.com median listing price data on FRED.
Which Phoenix price number should you trust?
For “is my home losing value,” trust Case-Shiller. For “what are homes selling for this month,” use the ARMLS medians. Asking prices tell you where sellers are starting, not where they finish.
Case-Shiller compares the same houses selling twice, so a month with more condos or more cheap homes doesn’t skew it. The catch is lag: the August reading came out October 27. A median sale price is fresher but swings with the mix of what sold. One more wrinkle: the Phoenix REALTORS medians don’t account for seller concessions or down payment assistance. If a seller paid $10,000 toward the buyer’s rate buydown, the median doesn’t see it, so the real price drop can be a bit bigger than the headline.
Are Phoenix condo prices falling faster than single-family homes?
Yes. Condos and townhomes are the softest part of the Phoenix market right now.
In Maricopa County, the September townhouse/condo median fell 3.9% to $320,000, and the year-to-date median slid from $349,000 to $330,000. Condos sat 93 days until sale versus 75 for single-family homes, and supply hit 5.8 months versus 3.9. Inside Phoenix city limits, the condo median actually rose 2.8% to $329,000 in September. Don’t read too much into that. Only 192 condos closed, and the year-to-date median is still down from $328,000 to $310,000, with 6.4 months of supply.
How far are Phoenix prices from the 2022 peak?
About 5% below it. The Case-Shiller Phoenix index on FRED peaked at 343.55 in June 2022. The August 2026 reading was 324.94, roughly 5.4% lower (our math).
That’s the whole metro, though. A condo bought at the top could be down more, while the same index sits more than 50% above its mid-2020 level (our math), so most owners who bought before 2021 are still well ahead. We went deeper on that question in Is Your Phoenix Home Worth Less Than in 2022?
Why are Phoenix pending sales down so much?
Mostly mortgage rates, and partly how early the number came out. Phoenix REALTORS counted 3,289 pending sales in September, 40.3% fewer than a year earlier. That’s a first print, current as of October 3, and it may be revised once late contracts are logged.
The direction is real, though. NAR’s September pending home sales report showed the West down 15.0% from a year earlier, the weakest region, and NAR’s chief economist blamed “fast-rising mortgage rates.” The 30-year fixed averaged 7.32% on October 22, versus 6.19% a year earlier, per the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Fewer contracts in September usually means fewer closings in October and November. Pending sales lead. Prices follow, slowly.
How long are Phoenix homes taking to sell?
About two and a half months for a single-family home. Maricopa County houses took 75 days from listing to sale in September (78 a year ago), and City of Phoenix houses took 68 days. Condos are slower, at 93 days countywide.
Here’s the interesting part: homes that sell are still getting close to asking. Maricopa single-family homes got 98.1% of list price in September. That tells you buyers are paying fair prices for well-priced homes and skipping the rest.
Are Phoenix sellers cutting prices?
Yes, more of them than a year ago. Realtor.com counted 9,178 Phoenix-metro listings with a price reduction in September 2026, up from 8,256 in September 2025, according to its price-reduced count on FRED.
Inventory is building too. The ARMLS area had 25,861 homes for sale in September, up 6.9%, which works out to 4.5 months of supply (4.2 a year ago). More choice gives buyers time to wait out an overpriced listing. That’s why asking prices are dropping faster than sale prices: sellers who started too high are walking it back.
How does Phoenix compare with the rest of the country?
Phoenix is lagging. The Case-Shiller national index rose 2.1% from August 2025 to August 2026 and the 20-city composite rose 2.7%, while Phoenix eked out 0.42%. Six cities in the index did worse, led by Seattle (down 2.0%) and Las Vegas (down 1.3%).
The federal data agrees. The FHFA House Price Index rose 2.4% nationally over the same twelve months, but the Mountain division, which includes Arizona, gained only 0.5%, the lowest of all nine divisions.
Will Phoenix home prices fall further in 2027?
Nobody knows, and we won’t pretend to. What we can say is which signals to watch: the October Phoenix REALTORS reports in early November (with ARMLS’s own STAT report about mid-month), the Freddie Mac rate each Thursday, and whether Phoenix-area inventory keeps climbing past 4.5 months of supply.
Our take: plan for flat to slightly lower prices in the Valley through the winter, not a 2008 replay. Sale prices are within a few percent of last year and homes are still closing at about 98% of list. Rates are the swing factor. If they ease, the pending-sales drop could reverse quickly.
What does this mean if you’re selling a Phoenix home?
It means pricing to this fall’s sales, not last spring’s or 2022’s. In a flat market, the first two weeks of a listing do most of the work. Here’s how we’d approach it, in order:
- Price off closed sales from the last 90 days in your subdivision, not active listings. In Maricopa County, homes are closing near 98% of list, so a realistic list price is your best lever.
- Know your property type. Condo and townhome sellers face roughly 6 months of supply in Phoenix, so sharper pricing matters more there.
- Price the buyer’s payment, not just the price. At 7.32%, a seller credit toward a rate buydown can do more than a small price cut. Ask a loan officer to compare both.
- Check in at day 7, 14 and 21. Showings, feedback and new competition tell you early whether the price is working.
Start with a number grounded in your street. A free Homie home value report from a local agent is a good first step, and you can read more about how Homie works in Arizona on our Arizona page.
What does it mean for Phoenix buyers?
More choice and more room to negotiate, but not a fire sale. With 25,861 listings in the ARMLS area and more price cuts than a year ago, buyers can take their time, ask for concessions and walk away from overpriced homes.
Waiting for a big drop is a bet on rates as much as prices. A loan officer can show you what a buydown or seller credit does to your monthly payment, and a Homie agent can show you which neighborhoods have the most sellers ready to deal.
Quick answers
Is Phoenix in a housing crash?
No. A crash means steep, fast declines, often driven by forced sales. Phoenix sale prices in September 2026 were within about 4% of a year earlier, depending on the measure, and Maricopa single-family homes sold for 98.1% of list. Activity has dropped sharply, but prices are drifting, not collapsing. Rates are the bigger story right now.
What is the median home price in Phoenix right now?
For September 2026, the City of Phoenix single-family median sale price was $485,000, down 3.5% from a year earlier. Countywide, Maricopa single-family homes had a $500,000 median, and the ARMLS area median for all home types was $460,000. Condos and townhomes ran lower, at $329,000 in the city and $320,000 countywide.
Are home prices going down in Mesa?
Slightly. The Mesa Local Market Update showed a September 2026 single-family median of $492,500, down 1.3% from a year earlier, with homes selling in 62 days at 98.5% of list. Mesa condos and townhomes dipped 2.7% to $275,000. Mesa has held up a bit better than the county as a whole.
Should I wait until spring to sell my Phoenix home?
It depends on your timeline, not the forecast. Waiting means another few months of payments, taxes and upkeep with no promise prices rise. If you need to move in the next six months, price it right now. If you can wait, watch the October and November ARMLS data before deciding.
The bottom line
Phoenix prices are slipping, not sliding. Case-Shiller is barely positive year over year, sale-price medians are down a couple of percent, and asking prices are falling fastest because sellers are correcting overreaching list prices. Condos are weakest. The homes that sell still sell close to asking, which means the right price matters more than the right month.
Curious where your home lands in all this? Get a free home value report built on recent sales near you, from a local agent who knows the Valley. Thinking about listing? See how Homie helps you sell. Whether you’re buying, selling, or doing both, Homie has your back.
— The Homie Team
*Examples are for illustrative purposes only. This article is general information, not legal, tax, lending or insurance advice.
*Market data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller (August 2026), FHFA House Price Index (August 2026), Phoenix REALTORS/ARMLS (September 2026), NAR Pending Home Sales (September 2026), Realtor.com via FRED (September 2026) and Freddie Mac PMMS (October 22, 2026). All data obtained from sources deemed reliable but not verified. Information not guaranteed.