You’ve got a number in your head. Maybe it’s the Zestimate you screenshotted in spring 2022. Maybe it’s what the house two doors down sold for that summer, when buyers were writing love letters and waiving appraisals.
That number is the hardest thing to let go of when you sell. It’s also the number most likely to leave your home sitting on the market this fall.
Short answer: Yes, for many owners. Metro Phoenix home values were about 5.0% below their June 2022 peak as of the June 2026 Case-Shiller reading. Price from recent sales of homes like yours, not 2022 comps or an online estimate, and expect buyers to pay close to list only when list is realistic.
Are Phoenix home prices down from 2022?
Yes. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Phoenix Home Price Index hit 343.55 in June 2022. As of the June 2026 reading (the latest published as of September 28, 2026), it sits at 326.26. That’s about 5.0% below the peak, and down about 0.9% from 329.14 in June 2025.
The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite rose about 2.1% over the same year and sits roughly 9.9% above its own June 2022 level. The country moved past 2022. Phoenix hasn’t.
That’s not a crash. But four years below the peak is a real pricing problem for sellers anchored to the top.
How much have Phoenix home values changed since you bought?
It depends mostly on your purchase year. Pre-2021 buyers are well ahead on the metro index; 2022 buyers are a bit behind. The table uses June readings of the Phoenix Case-Shiller index. It shows the metro-wide index change, not your home’s value.
| Bought in June of | Phoenix index then | Index, June 2026 | Metro index change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 192.63 | 326.26 | +69.4% |
| 2020 | 210.01 | 326.26 | +55.4% |
| 2021 | 271.47 | 326.26 | +20.2% |
| 2022 | 343.55 | 326.26 | -5.0% |
| 2023 | 317.57 | 326.26 | +2.7% |
| 2024 | 329.23 | 326.26 | -0.9% |
| 2025 | 329.14 | 326.26 | -0.9% |
Here’s an illustrative example. A home bought for $300,000 in June 2019 that tracked the index exactly would be near $508,000 today. One bought for $450,000 in June 2022 would be near $427,000. Real homes don’t track an index exactly.
Why don’t 2022 comps apply to your home now?
Because buyers in 2022 were shopping with cheaper money and far less competition. Today’s buyer compares your home against today’s listings at today’s mortgage rates. An appraiser working for that buyer’s lender will look at recent closed sales, not what your neighbor got four summers ago.
Asking prices show the shift clearly. Realtor.com data on FRED puts the Phoenix metro median list price at $475,000 in August 2026, down 4.8% from a year earlier. The series peaked at $549,450 in May 2022. Today’s median asking price is about 13.6% below that high.
Why is my Zestimate different from what my home would sell for?
An online estimate is a computer model built on public records and nearby sales. It hasn’t seen your kitchen or your new roof, and it can lag when a market turns. It’s a starting point, not a list price.
Homie’s guide to CMA vs. appraisal vs. Zestimate breaks down how each number gets built and when to trust which one.
How do you find what your Phoenix home is worth now?
Get a comparative market analysis (CMA) from a local agent. A CMA pulls recent closed sales of similar homes near yours, adjusts for differences like square footage, pool, garage and updates, then checks the homes you’d compete with right now.
A sold comp from March tells you what a buyer paid. The active listings on your side of the Loop 101 tell you what today’s buyer is choosing between. A free Homie home value report gives you that picture from a local agent, based on recent sales near you.
How much below list are Phoenix homes selling?
Not much below the final list price. The Phoenix REALTORS August 2026 Market Activity report shows sellers received 98.0% of list price on average. That report also shows a median sale price of $455,000 (up 0.4% from a year earlier), 81 days on market and 4.1 months of supply.
The catch: that 98.0% is measured against the most recent list price, after any cuts. And the gap between asking and selling is real. Realtor.com’s median asking price for the metro was $475,000 in August. The median sale price was $455,000. Different datasets, but a $20,000 spread says a lot about where sellers start versus where buyers land.
Homie’s September 2026 analysis of ARMLS data found a median sale price of $445,000 in August, down from $450,000 in July, with months supply at 4.28 and an absorption rate of 23.37%.
Should you price above the market to leave room to negotiate?
Usually not in Phoenix right now. Nearly half of active listings are already cutting price. Realtor.com data on FRED counted 8,332 Phoenix listings with a price reduction in August 2026, out of 17,707 active listings. That’s about 47%.
Our take: “room to negotiate” mostly buys you room to sit. With 4.1 months of supply, buyers have choices, and a home priced above its comps often doesn’t get the showings that would produce an offer to negotiate in the first place. Your listing is never newer to buyers than in its first weeks. Spend that window at the right price.
How should you price a Phoenix home this fall?
Start from today’s evidence, not from 2022 working down. Here’s the order we’d follow:
- Retire the 2022 number. Write it down, then set it aside.
- Pull closed sales from the last three to six months, same neighborhood, similar size and age.
- Walk (online or in person) the active listings you’d compete with, and note which ones have already cut.
- Adjust honestly for condition. A 2004 kitchen isn’t a 2024 kitchen, whatever the Zestimate thinks.
- Price inside a common buyer search band (under $450,000, not $452,000) so more buyers see you.
- Set review dates at 7, 14 and 21 days: showings, feedback, offers. Adjust on evidence, not nerves.
Homie’s related guide on how to price your home in Arizona covers more of the basics.
What if you bought your Phoenix home at the 2022 peak?
You may have less equity than you expected, and possibly less than you paid, especially after selling costs. On the metro index alone, June 2022 buyers are about 5.0% behind. Your actual position depends on your price, your loan balance and your home.
Before you list, ask a loan officer about your payoff and whether refinancing, waiting or renting it out pencils out. Ask a tax professional how a sale at or below your purchase price affects you. Then get a real market value so you’re making that call with actual numbers.
Does your Maricopa County assessor value tell you what your home is worth?
No. The full cash value on your Notice of Valuation is a property tax figure, not a sale price. The Maricopa County Assessor’s appeals page even lists “full cash value does not reflect market value” as a reason owners file appeals.
Your tax bill uses a separate number, the limited property value, which the Assessor notes typically can rise only up to 5% a year unless a triggering event resets it. Neither should set your list price. If you think your valuation is off, the Assessor’s office or a tax professional can walk you through the appeal process.
Will Phoenix home prices recover to 2022 levels?
Nobody can promise when. June readings of the index have stayed between about 317 and 330 since 2023, well short of 343.55.
If you need to sell in the next year, plan around today’s market, not a recovery date. If you don’t, a loan officer and a local agent can help you weigh holding against selling.
Quick answers
Is my Phoenix home worth less than I paid?
If you bought between 2022 and 2025, it might be. The Phoenix Case-Shiller index in June 2026 was about 5.0% below June 2022 and about 0.9% below June 2024 and June 2025. If you bought in 2021 or earlier, the metro index is well above where it was. Your home’s own comps are the real answer.
How many Phoenix listings have cut their price?
About 47% in August 2026. Realtor.com data on FRED counted 8,332 Phoenix metro listings with a price reduction out of 17,707 active listings. That means nearly one in two sellers started too high for the buyers who were looking, which is a strong argument for pricing right at launch.
What is the median home price in Phoenix right now?
The Phoenix REALTORS August 2026 report shows a median sale price of $455,000, up 0.4% from a year earlier. Homie’s September 2026 analysis of ARMLS data found a median sale price of $445,000 for August. The median asking price, per Realtor.com data on FRED, was $475,000. Sale and asking prices are different measures.
Does snowbird season help Phoenix sellers?
It can bring more out-of-state buyers into the Valley from fall through spring, and the weather makes showings easier. It doesn’t fix a price that’s out of line with your comps. Seasonal buyers still compare you against every other listing in the same range, and plenty of those listings have already cut.
Is Phoenix doing worse than the rest of the country?
On prices, yes, for now. As of June 2026, the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite was up about 2.1% year over year and roughly 9.9% above June 2022. Phoenix was down about 0.9% year over year and about 5.0% below its June 2022 peak. That split is why national headlines often don’t match what Valley sellers see.
The bottom line
Your 2022 number was real, for 2022. Phoenix hasn’t gotten back there yet, and pricing to that memory is how homes end up in the 47% that cut. Price to this fall’s buyers and you give yourself the best shot at a clean sale.
Want a number built from real recent sales near you? Get a free home value report from a local Homie agent, see how Homie works across the Phoenix metro, and when you’re ready, learn more about selling with Homie. Whether you’re buying, selling, or doing both, Homie has your back.
— The Homie Team
*Examples are for illustrative purposes only. This article is general information, not legal, tax, lending or insurance advice.
*Market data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indices via FRED (June 2026), Realtor.com listing data via FRED (August 2026), Phoenix REALTORS (August 2026) and Homie’s September 2026 analysis of ARMLS data (August 2026). All data obtained from sources deemed reliable but not verified. Information not guaranteed.